Future Forecast

I had heard about the Chinese methods of controlling the weather. Before the Olympics, reports reached us about weather magicians in Beijing cloud-seeding to solicit rain from the withholding skies. Three days after our arrival in the city, we woke up to a modest dusting of snow.

"This is the first snowfall of the season!" smiled Ray, as we watched people sweep the scanty snow with brooms. Although many complained about the hassle and delays on roads, Beijing needed this snow, as it needs every lick of moisture it can summon. And summon this snow, it did. The Beijing Weather Modification Control Center seeded the clouds with "426 cigarette sized silver iodide sticks" to receive the snowfall.

Although reports at the time claimed the snowfall ended the drought, Beijing will have to see a lot more precipitation to reverse a situation that becomes more and more serious each day. The Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief states that over 4.5 million people are in the drought area. Already millions of dollars this year have been spent of drought relief efforts.

Yesterday I went hiking on the border of Beijing and Hebei provinces. We left one tiny village, crested some mountains and came down the other side to meet a small group of farmers. While speaking with them, one man said the last time he had seen a good harvest was 1979. Indeed, this drought has been long, hard, and seemingly unending.

Why unending? The problem is two very stubborn and thirsty clients. First, agriculture in China (as elsewhere) is highly input intensive and requires high levels of irrigation. Second, Beijing. The city's municipality is approximately 17 million people. Are there water restrictions? No. Is there enough water to keep them (us, for I must not excuse myself) drinking, bathing, washing, and wasting? No. Beijing is overdrafting its own underground water resources and sucking dry the surrounding provinces.

Where am I going with this? I'd like to look out at the future for a second. Despite the magic worked by the Beijing Weather Modification Control Center, the future in Beijing (and other places throughout the world that overdraw from aquifers) looks pretty grim... If we take out all the water, the land subsidizes before the rock can recharge, or reabsorb, enough water to keep it functioning. If this happens, it will never be able to hold the same amount of water, and water table levels will continue to drop.

What now, Beijing? Pray for rain, I supposed. Hope for a downpour.